Amit Bhanot, Managing Editor, Governance Democracy & Politics Magazine, December Issue
Gujarat assembly elections is now heading towards its last leg and with each passing day this one of the most “crucial” elections of recent times are heading for a nail biting finish as many factors- right from Patidars reservation to Ram Temple issue, to usage of cuss words by Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar for PM Modi, etc. have given new facets to this assembly election. Interestingly this patented “hindutatva laboratory” of BJP is seeing such a multi-dimensional fight for the first time in last so many years and anti-incumbency of 22 years of BJP rule has just added spice to this fierce battle. So much so that now it has become a matter of pride and prestige for both BJP and Congress. But is this a battle of just one state or something else? I think Gujarat has set the tone for 2019 parliament elections loud and clear and both BJP and Opposition don’t want to portray themselves on defensive foot and want to create their own agendas, be it reservations, Ram Temple, Nationalization, Corruptions etc.
As far as Gujarat elections are concerned, as far as PM Modi is there as BJP’s trump card and party president Amit Shah is there as its poll strategist, BJP seems invincible in Gujarat, though its winning margin may reduce vis-à-vis last elections, majorly due to anti incumbency and Patel and SC-OBCs agitations. But is this a comfortable situation for BJP? Clearly the answer is negative, as biggest political party of the world now has to come up with refurbished strategy to consolidate its vote banks before the mother of all battle i.e. 2019 elections. For this 2018 would be quite crucial as many states like MP, Chattisgarh, Rajasthan etc. would go to polls next year and stakes of BJP is quite high in these states as it has a virtual clean sweep in these states during 2014 elections. Considering that Gujarat Elections have the power to change the upcoming political dimensions of India.
As BJP, and Congress are preparing themselves for the final showdown in Gujarat, Rahul Gandhi and PM Modi are both fighting to save their prestige. On one hand Rahul Gandhi is fighting to prove his legacy and strength as a leader, PM Modi has the challenge to save his home ground. Situation on ground is so tense that it has virtually become do or die situation for both. That’s why they are using every available tactic to lure the people of Gujarat. Within few seconds dimensions are changing and new controversy takes birth every other second.
As far as crucial factor in this election is concerned then clearly rise of Hardik Patel, as Patel leader is the most crucial development in the state but whether he would be able to garner votes for Congress, is still yet to be seen. Due to the Patel reservation campaign, Hardik gained tremendous popularity in the state. In the beginning, both parties were trying to get his support, but recently he gave his support to Congress. He gave support to Congress, after taking the promise of 10% reservation for the Patels. Importantly Patel community directly impacts the 80 assembly seats and Patel community is one of the largest community of Gujarat. That’s why both parties are trying hard to please them.
On the other hand one thing is quite clear that no party wants to leave any stone unturned and trying every thing that could make an impact on the elections. But in doing so the most important factor of Development has somehow left somewhere in the noise of religion and cast politics. In this noise no one pays attention to the poor issue of development. Both parties are busy on degrading each other and visiting different communal temples. They won’t have time to talk about development and employment.
Interestingly for BJP, “Chanakya” of Indian politics Amit Shah is really the X-factor for ruling BJP. He seems perfectly into his grove and meticulously executing the plans at the booth level. No wonder if he again would win the man of the match award for this crucial fight, a “bad habit” he has inculcated during last few years, starting 2014 elections. I want to quote one instance of him where he took a jibe at newly elected congress president Rahul Gandhi, saying his visits to Gujarat had increased as he thought the state was a “tourist spot”. “Gujarat election was not just a fight between two parties but a battle between Congress’s casteism and dynastic rule and Prime Minster Narendra Modi’s developmental politics,” he added. This statement clearly depicts the tone of Gujarat Election and the confidence of Shah and BJP on Modi’s Charisma to win elections. Such confidence is also not quite surprising, given the track record of party in Gujarat during last 22 years, especially during the tenure of Narendra Modi as CM of the state. Considering this Gujarat Elections would, in all probability would to into BJP pocket but at what margin would be more crucial? If that margin to come down to 10-15 seats, then it would send alarm signals into BJP high command ahead of 2018 and party has to take a fresh outlook for 2019 elections.
